Effect of Climate Change on Staple Food Production: Empirical Evidence from a Structural Ricardian Analysis

The structural Ricardian model has been used to examine the links between climate variables and staple food production in literature. However, empirical extensions considering cluster-correlated effects of change have limited. This study aims bridge this knowledge gap by extending accommodate for spatial clustering while examining their on production. Based nationally representative farm household data Taiwan, present investigates effect conditions both crop choice subsequent three most important foods. results suggest that seasonal temperature/precipitation variations are major determinants after controlling households’ socio-economic characteristics. impacts found be location-dependent, which also vary significantly across commodities. Climate impact assessment under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios indicates detrimental rice during 2021–2100. Under RCP6.0, adverse will reach high approximately $2900 last two decades century. There is a gradual increase terms size negative vegetable RCP2.6 RCP4.5. RCP6.0 RCP8.5, switch signs entire time span. fruits different from other simulated that, except positive around $210–$320 2021–2040; then $640–$870 before end